Oil And Gas Trade
Changes in the regional structure of global economic development will promote sustained and rapid growth of the international oil trade. This is because, on the one hand, the regional distribution pattern of international oil trade and the dominant position of oil in the world energy structure will not change fundamentally in the foreseeable future, but with the rapid growth of some emerging economies and the consumption of oil. The expansion of the scale of demand, the contradiction between the imbalance of supply and demand will become more prominent, and the scale of international oil trade will continue to grow. On the other hand, the gradual expansion of oil markets and the increasingly active oil trade are accompanied by the diversification of products entities and the way of trade itself. The diversification of the international oil gas trade will become an important part of the profitability of oil companies.
The oil trade mode has continuously evolved toward diversification and systemization. The main performance is that on the one hand, the scale and functionalization of the oil physical trading center has become increasingly prominent, forming a systemized trading method including spot contracts, forward contracts, medium and long-term contracts, etc. Rapid growth, especially oil futures, is playing an increasingly important role in the entire oil market trading system. With the development of financial markets, financial engineering technology and information technology, new derivatives such as arbitrage trading, cash delivery and futures to spot, futures swaps and CFDs are increasingly used in oil trading activities.
The financial attributes of the international oil trade benchmark and oil price formation process have become increasingly prominent. Although the spot market is still the basis for the formation of international oil trade benchmark oil prices, the futures market has a price discovery function and can greatly increase the liquidity of trading. Through the trading of the underlying crude oil varieties, it has played a leading role in the world crude oil price changes. The role of financial attributes in the formation of world crude oil prices has become increasingly prominent. The financialization of oil prices has helped the oil price rise to a certain extent.
The competition in the status of the Asian trading center will become increasingly fierce. At the same time, the benchmark oil characterized by heavy acid may become one of the three benchmark oils. Asia is expected to become one of the three major pricing centers for crude oil in the world. With the increasing market share of heavy and high-sulfur crude oil in the international oil market, a relatively independent oil that is different from West Texas Intermediate and Brent oil can reflect the supply and demand of heavy high-sulfur crude oil market. Market trading mechanisms and price formation mechanisms have become a top priority. The battle around this new pricing center will be the focus of competition among countries.
China's participation in the international oil trade challenges
First, the participation of international oil trade entities needs to be further diversified, and the competitiveness of trading companies needs to be improved. On the one hand, the improvement of China's market economic system and the improvement of the degree of internationalization need to gradually break the unified situation of state-owned trade and allow more qualified enterprises to participate. On the other hand, the restriction of corporate acceptor system and talents engaged in the trade of crude oil and refined oil can only be based on the protection of domestic oil supply. The global oil trading business is not enough to become a company with core competitiveness. Unable to compete fully with major international oil companies.
Second, oil imports can only passively accept the price of oil supply and demand led by the United States and Europe. The international price formation process does not objectively and reasonably reflect the changes in the supply and demand of China's oil. Although China's oil trade has grown rapidly and has gradually become an important part of international oil trade, this factor has not been fully reflected in the benchmark crude oil price. China's demand factors are often exaggerated by false expectations, pushing up international oil prices to a certain extent, while China can only passively accept international oil prices.
Third, the systems and mechanisms for adapting to diversified trade methods have not yet been fully established, and risk management is far from being able to adapt to the complex and volatile international oil trading mechanism. On the one hand, under the current situation, it is difficult to effectively regulate enterprises in international oil transactions, without imposing them restrictions on enterprises' participation in international petroleum derivatives trading; on the other hand, oil companies involved in oil trading activities use derivatives to trade. These two reasons lead to the fact that companies can only passively accept price risks and cannot actively and effectively manage risks.
Fourth, the soft and hard infrastructure supporting the international oil trade cannot guarantee the enterprises to win favorable trade opportunities. At present, the authoritative information dissemination and research institutions in China have not yet been established, and the energy and financial compound talents who can adapt to the complex and volatile oil market are seriously inadequate. Hard infrastructure is not enough to protect the country from the risks of supply disruptions caused by unexpected events, nor can it meet the needs of enterprises to make full use of changes in the international market environment and adjust their business strategies in a timely manner. In addition, the excessive dependence of oil trade on maritime transport and the “Malacca” channel is also an important aspect that constrains the safety of China's oil trade.
Fifth, the framework for participating in the multilateral international energy cooperation mechanism is not enough to guarantee the safety of China's oil trade. In the international energy cooperation mechanism, oil is the core. China has participated in some multilateral energy cooperation mechanisms in a focused manner. However, due to constraints of time, system and politics, it has not yet established a stable and effective energy cooperation framework, which has affected the safe, stable and reliable oil trade strategy. Implementation.
China's strategic choice to participate in international oil trade
Improve the domestic oil market system and improve China's voice in international oil pricing.
With the continuous improvement of foreign dependence, China's domestic oil market has become an increasingly important part of the world market. Therefore, China should look at the role of domestic market construction in safeguarding domestic supply from the height of the world oil market. On the basis of multi-level international trade market, trading methods and the diversity of trading entities, China should gradually improve the domestic physical trading market, step by step to promote the construction of the paper goods market, and focus on spot, forward and futures. The multi-level, open market system and diversification of trading methods allow international major oil companies, financial institutions and institutional investors to participate in the domestic oil futures market transactions, and improve the domestic oil market's position in the international oil market. Become one of the global oil pricing centers.
Create a favorable domestic and international cooperation environment and build a stable, reliable and diversified source of import sources.
Give play to the role of the state in striving for international oil supply and actively carry out international energy cooperation. On the basis of mutual benefit and reciprocity, we will give full play to the advantages of China's economic rise, integrate oil cooperation into all-round cooperation, and actively participate in various regional and international dialogues and exchanges. In addition, the development of advanced technology in cooperative oil-producing countries, industrial exchanges, and market-based supply of stable oil are also important ways to stabilize relations with oil-producing countries. While stabilizing existing sources of oil imports, it is also necessary to gradually broaden the sources of oil imports to reduce the risks posed by excessive concentration of oil imports.
Enhance the internationalization of oil companies and the ability to obtain equity oil, and ensure the sustainable development of international oil trade.
The competitive market environment is the most effective means to cultivate the competitiveness of enterprises. China should gradually break the unified situation of state-owned trade and promote the comprehensive improvement of the international trade capacity of Chinese enterprises in the competition. In addition, Chinese oil companies should also actively acquire equity oils abroad. Of course, obtaining equity oil abroad is not a direct international oil transaction, nor does it mean that the obtained equity oil must be shipped back to China, but this provides a key The strategic choice of the moment will enhance the bargaining power of Chinese oil companies in international trade.
Accelerate the construction of oil trade infrastructure and form a flexible and developed oil transportation network system.
The mode of transportation must be diversified, especially to increase shipping capacity and pipeline capacity. Shipping will continue to be the main mode of oil transportation. It should change the current situation of China's oil tanker and small oil tanker tonnage, and build an ocean-going tanker that can basically ensure China's oil supply and have international competitiveness, and reduce transportation costs. Through the three channels of northwest, northeast and southwest, the oil pipelines will be built or expanded to form a transportation channel with sea and land. At present, it is necessary to make full use of the land pipelines that have been built or under construction, and focus on expanding the transportation capacity of pipelines in Central Asia and Russia to China.
Promote the construction of systems and regulations and improve the government's ability to supervise international oil trade.
Actively promote the construction of institutions, regulations and information disclosure mechanisms for the oil market, and provide institutional and information guarantees for government regulation and enterprises to participate in international oil trade. In the past 20 years, the oil market information disclosure mechanism of developed countries has played an important role in stabilizing its domestic oil market and ensuring safe supply. After the information disclosure mechanism is completed, the government can timely detect the changing trends of the domestic and world oil markets, and effectively manage the domestic information disclosure and unified disclosure of petroleum. In addition, we should strengthen the construction of information security management system. In the process of participating in international trade, China's security management of transaction information and public disclosure of information should establish a system to unify the caliber to avoid unnecessary information leakage. Real estate development